This widget shows the chokepoints and seasonal vulnerability of different countries to import shocks. Slide across the months to see how imports change across the seasons.
Each bubble represents a major fertilizer-importing country/region. Bubble size is proportional to import value (2024 USD). Colour intensity tracks import dependency ratio — so Brazil at 85% and West Africa at 92% are red during their peak months, while the US (20% dependent) stays moderate. The maritime chokepoints (Hormuz, Suez, Black Sea, Malacca) turn red when countries currently in their peak import window depend on routes through them.
The Strait of Hormuz is going to matter a great deal in the coming months. The key flows of fertilizer through it are:
Feb–Mar: Australia, East Africa
Apr–Jun: India (kharif), Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Brazil (starting May)
Jul–Sep: Brazil (peak), Argentina, East Africa (second season), Southern Africa, Indonesia
Oct–Nov: India (rabi), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Southern Africa
Dec: Bangladesh (late rabi procurement)
Two things the widget doesn’t show. First, that US fertilizer usage was down last year — tariffs are already doing damage. Second, that agroecological food systems are resilient to exactly these kinds of geopolitical shocks.
Stop the war. Stop the dependency.
Sources:
Country-level fertilizer import values (2024) are drawn from World’s Top Exports, which compiles data from the ITC Trade Map. Import dependency ratios — the share of a country’s fertilizer consumption met by imports — are synthesized from USDA Foreign Agricultural Service trade reports, IFA’s Short-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2024–2025, and FAO FAOSTAT fertilizer data. Seasonal import patterns for Brazil are based on Conab logistics bulletins and StoneX market analysis as reported by Cultivar Magazine. India’s dual-season import windows follow the FAO crop calendar for India and India’s Fertiliser Association supply data for April–December 2025. Crop calendars for all other countries are derived from the USDA IPAD Crop Calendar Charts. Sub-Saharan Africa’s 90%+ import dependency figure comes from the World Bank and AfricaFertilizer.org. Maritime chokepoint exposure is based on primary shipping routes for each country’s top suppliers, cross-referenced with the FAO’s Remaining Fertilizer Trade Tracker.
Assumptions and limitations:
Import dependency percentages are approximate, ratios vary by nutrient type (nitrogen, phosphate, potash). Brazil’s 85% figure, for instance, reflects overall tonnage; its dependency on potash imports exceeds 95%. Peak import months are inferred from crop planting calendars and seasonal volume data rather than complete month-by-month customs records, which are not publicly available for most countries. Sub-Saharan Africa is split into three sub-regions (West, East, Southern) because rainy seasons — and therefore planting and procurement windows — diverge significantly. Bubble sizes reflect import value in US dollars rather than volume in tonnes, which means price fluctuations (particularly the 2022 spike) affect cross-country comparisons. Chokepoint assignments reflect current major trade routes but some countries may shift suppliers in response to disruptions.